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US retail sales fell 2.8% in October, according to the Commerce Department. While a sizable portion can be attributed to falling gas prices and declining auto sales, the contraction was widespread. There are four major concerns facing consumers: falling house prices; a resultant rise in debt levels relative to their net worth; rising unemployment and the threat of lay-offs; and higher credit card interest rates and lack of access to new credit. All are restraining consumer spending. Any savings from lower gas prices, as a result, will go towards paying off debt rather than financing new purchases. Faith in the ever-lasting boom is now seriously fractured and consumers are likely to adopt a more conservative outlook, paying off debt and increasing savings.
Declining consumer spending will cause a recession in most global economies — and don’t expect a short V-bottom. Politicians will attempt to create the illusion that the boom is back: supressing interest rates to discourage savings and encourage borrowing. But consumers are unlikely to fall for that trick too soon.
The risk is that lower consumer spending starts a downward spiral, with lower sales resulting in further job cuts, which in turn causes further falls in spending. Government response to this is generally big spending programs, especially on infrastructure, but these can either debase the currency if funded through a budget deficit, or hurt consumer spending if funded through increased taxes. The consumer is the backbone of the economy and the quickest, safest route to restore stability to the market place. Encourage consumers to save on energy costs by offering rebates on electric or alternative energy automobiles, use of public transport systems, and other energy-saving devices. That way you can use the new savings ethic to actually stimulate spending, while reducing reliance on oil imports.
Interbank Spreads
The NYFR-OIS 1-month spread fell to 1.0 percent, and appears headed for a return to the normal margin of 50 basis points (0.50%). Fed injection of close to a trillion dollars in the last two months, and interposing itself as intermediary in the interbank market, is finalling breaking the gridlock. But this does not mean that markets have returned to normal — they remain on life support.
The NYFR is a broader, independent alternative to LIBOR, while the overnight index swap rate (OIS) reflects traders’ expectations of the overnight fed funds rate. The 0.50 percent spread between the OIS and the fed funds target rate points to another rate cut.
By Colin Twiggs
November 15, 5:00 a.m. ET (8:00 p.m. AET)
Tags: currency symbols, forex trading systems, china currency, forex software, canada currency, currency value, turkish currency
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Join the forum discussion on this post - (1) Posts11-14-083:26a GMT - EUR/USD shot upwards today, busting through all resistance levels in its way. No bearish reversal signals were given though so no shorts were taken and we stayed out of a bad position. With that latest push we have mixed signals for the [...]
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My-Zue: EURUSD / USDJPY / USDCHF / GBPUSD/ USDCAD
0 Comments Published November 14th, 2008 in Uncategorized
[My-Zue] Deposit and withdrawal via local bank & debit/credit card • Giving the most unbeatable fixed spread/ask bid! • Mini account provided for small traders.
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StreamBase and Vhayu Launch Shared Customer Deployment
0 Comments Published November 13th, 2008 in Uncategorized
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Hey guys,I just spent the whole day yesterday going through my e-Mail inbox. I noticed quite a few emails suggesting a keep a tally of the trades taken based on my weekly analysis.So starting this week I will be tallying all trades. To take a look at the tally simply click on the ‘trade tally’ [...]
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$40 Off of NickB Method Video Course Until Monday
0 Comments Published November 13th, 2008 in UncategorizedHey Guys,Over the past month Forex4Noobs.com’s popularity has grown. The amount of visitors has jumped up a jaw dropping 20% per week. With all the new members joined I have been getting a lot of emails concerning the video course I released about a year ago.I do not advertise the video course very much as [...]
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FOREX TRADE ALERT | FOREX SUMMERY REPORT for EUR
0 Comments Published November 13th, 2008 in Uncategorized
Forex Trade Alert
4xGenie Summary Report for EUR Currency Pairs
4th Wave Up Symbol: EUR/AUD As of Nov-13-2008
Buy at 1.9686 Stop at 1.8792 Limit at 2.0619 . Today’s candlestick appears in the yellow shaded area of the chart. This reflects strong consolidation here!
Next Day Trading Range.. High: 1.9510 Low: 1.9340
Next Day Breakout Points High: 1.9621 Low: 1.9281
Price Projections……. 1st: 2.3464 2nd: 2.5354
2nd Wave Up Long Symbol: EUR/CAD As of Nov-13-2008
On Nov-12-2008 a candlestick formation confirmed a buy signal. A buy signal was also confirmed when this pair closed above 1.5345 on Nov-12-2008. 4xgenie Action: ==> Buy at 1.5499. Stop at 1.4944. Wave 3 could rise up to 1.5979 or to 1.6471. NOTE: A consolidation of price movement or a price correction may be underway.
Next Day Trading Range.. High: 1.5458 Low: 1.5363
Next Day Breakout Points High: 1.5514 Low: 1.5324
Price Projections……. 1st: 1.6475 2nd: 1.7104
2nd Wave Dn Short Symbol: EUR/CHF As of Nov-13-2008
On Nov-11-2008 a candlestick formation confirmed a sell signal. A sell signal was also confirmed when this currency pair below 1.4913 on Nov-13-2008. 4xGenie Action: ==> Sell at 1.4713. Stop at 1.5200. Wave 3 could drop down to 1.4420 or to 1.3852. Today’s candlestick appears in the yellow shaded area of the chart. This reflects strong consolidation here!
Next Day Trading Range.. High: 1.4834 Low: 1.4787
Next Day Breakout Points High: 1.4855 Low: 1.4761
Price Projections……. 1st: 1.3852 2nd: 1.3350
1st Wave Up Symbol: EUR/GBP As of Nov-13-2008
Next Day Trading Range.. High: 0.8375 Low: 0.8334
Next Day Breakout Points High: 0.8400 Low: 0.8318
Price Projections……. 1st: 0.0000 2nd: 0.0000
A Wave Dn Symbol: EUR/JPY As of Nov-13-2008
Remain out of the market at the present time. QUARTERLY PIVOT ALERT: May be finding support here at the Quarterly S3. This bounce back above the support level of 118.1567 may lead us up to the Quarterly S2 ( support level 2).
Next Day Trading Range.. High: 119.9933 Low: 117.9833
Next Day Breakout Points High: 120.8667 Low: 116.8467
Price Projections……. 1st: 165.3300 2nd: 167.8874
C Wave Up Short Symbol: EUR/USD As of Nov-13-2008
Market is holding below the 1.3882 level. 4xGenie Action: ==> Maintain short position.
Or Sell at 1.2436. Limit at 1.2000 Price projection of 1.2711 has been reached. Stop at 1.3116. Today’s candlestick appears in the yellow shaded area of the chart. This reflects strong consolidation here! The CCI is below -100. This currency pair is oversold at this time.
Next Day Trading Range.. High: 1.2492 Low: 1.2443
Next Day Breakout Points High: 1.2516 Low: 1.2418
Price Projections……. 1st: 1.2711 2nd: 1.1892
4xGenie Support Team
Tags: learn forex, forex signals, currency translation, currency exchange locations, forex system, currency conversion rates, spain currency
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11/12/08 Free Forex Signal - EUR/USD Selling Rallies
0 Comments Published November 11th, 2008 in UncategorizedJoin the forum discussion on this post - (1) Posts11-12-083:56a GMT - The EUR/USD finally broke through its triangle consolidation pattern and made a quick dash to 1.2500 which I have been predicting for weeks. On the latest stall I thought it was going to return to the top of the wedge but it [...]
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Technical Analysis - EUR/USD Approaching Resistance
0 Comments Published November 10th, 2008 in UncategorizedJoin the forum discussion on this post - (1) Posts11-10-08*Quick note before today’s signal - I’ve updated the forex discussion group so that you no longer have to register to post or reply to someone elses post. I still hope you do register and there are advantages to registering, but FYI.4:04a GMT - the [...]
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